Egypt vs Uruguay – Lineups, Predictions & Stats Preview 15 June 2018

To generate a realistic Egypt v Uruguay tip, it will help to look at what happened in their more recent qualifying matches. Each qualified reasonably comfortably in the end, although things became tense for the Egyptians for a while, largely due to awareness of their record of not having qualified for the last 28 years. This will be the opening match of the tournament for these teams, so nerves will no doubt play an unpredictable part, but some statistics may nonetheless prove illuminating.

Egypt Probable Lineups And Stats

Analysing their qualifying campaign will give an idea of how they approach games, and also what coach Hector Cuper believes to be their best line-up. The key game was their penultimate qualifier against Congo, in which they eventually clinched their place in Russia with a 2-1 win. The line-up for this game was:

  • Essam El-Hadary
  • Ahmed Hegazi
  • Rami Hisham Rabia
  • Mohamed Abdel-Shafy
  • Ahmed Fathy
  • Saleh Gomaa
  • Tarek Hamed
  • Mohamed Elneny
  • Ahmed Hassan Kouka
  • Ramadan Sobhi
  • Mohamed Salah

Liverpool’s Salah is of course well known to British audiences. Elneny plies his trade at Arsenal, and Sobhi is making a name for himself at Stoke. Although only a substitute in this game, Ahmed El Mohamady of Aston Villa is also well known in the UK. Followers of the African Nations Cup will remember El-Hadary, the remarkable 45 year-old goalkeeper who has currently amassed 156 caps.

Analysing the statistics from Egypt’s last 4 qualifying games:

  • Average goals per game: 1.00. They were not prolific during this period, despite the opposition being of a generally modest standard. It is apparent that if Salah does not play they are unlikely to score. The Liverpool man actually scored 71% of their goals over the entire qualifying campaign!
  • Average number of shots per game: 10.25. Breaking this down further, they tend to have markedly less attempts on goal when playing away from home.
  • Discipline: an average of 1.75 yellow cards, and no red cards, per game.
  • Average possession: 53%.
  • Average corners per game: 5.25.

Uruguay Probable Line-ups And Stats

Uruguay ultimately finished second in the South American qualification, behind Brazil, but ahead of Argentina. The team line-up for their final qualifier was:

  • Fernando Muslera
  • Martin Caceres
  • Jose Maria Gimenez
  • Diego Godin
  • Gaston Silva
  • Federico Valverde
  • Matias Vecino Falero
  • Rodrigo Bentancur
  • Giorgian De Arrascaeta
  • Luis Suarez
  • Edinson Cavani

The most familiar names to English eyes will, of course, be the legendary strike partnership of Barcelona’s Suarez and PSG’s Cavani. These two are the leading goalscorers in Uruguayan international soccer history, with Suarez currently 9 ahead of Cavani. They are undoubtedly two of the best strikers in World football and are arguably in their prime. Suarez, in particular, will be desperate to complete a successful World Cup without the injury and disciplinary issues which have blighted his previous campaigns. In defence, the key man will be captain Diego Godin of Atletico Madrid.

Uruguay’s last 4 qualifiers are summarised statistically below:

  • Average goals per game: 1.5
  • Average number of shots per game: 10.5
  • Discipline: average of 1.25 yellow cards, and no red cards, per game.
  • Average possession: 50.75%
  • Average corners per game: 4.25

Due to the greater amount of data published, it is possible to calculate one additional statistic which is unavailable for the Egyptians: Average rate of pass completion: 84.75%

In fact, Uruguay only scored 2 goals in total in 3 of these games, and against Argentina, they enjoyed a mere 27% of possession. It is clear that, as has often been the case in the past, their approach can be cautious.

Egypt v Uruguay – Head To Head

These teams have met only once, in a friendly in Egypt in 2006.The game was won 2-0 by Uruguay. Aside from this, the only evidence which can be used to predict the outcome of this match relates to past performances in international tournaments.

Uruguay, despite having a population of only just over 3.4 million, have a great record in international football. They have won the World Cup twice, and have been semi-finalists on three other occasions, most recently in 2010. They have been champions of South America (or Copa America winners) 15 times, and have won the Olympics twice. They are renowned as well-organised and rugged, and currently, possess two of the best strikers in the world. Their achilles heel can be disciplinary problems.

Egypt has a population nearly 28 times that of Uruguay, but despite 7 African Nations Cup triumphs they have a poor World Cup record. This is only the third time they have qualified, and they have yet to win a match in the finals. Their hopes would seem to rest disproportionately on the shoulders of Salah, but they have an experienced coach who will be very familiar with Uruguay, so they cannot be taken lightly.

Egypt will clearly plan to deny space to Suarez and Cavani, whilst Uruguay will be primarily concerned with Salah. The officials will be put under pressure, which could result in penalties being awarded.

Expert Tip

This will probably be a nervy opening encounter, but Uruguay’s experience at this level should give them the advantage. A logical prediction would be a 2-0 to Uruguay, with 2-1 as an outside bet if Salah can earn a penalty. Despite their good disciplinary records in qualifying, a few cards can be expected – Uruguay could get 3 or 4 in stopping Salah, so more than 5 in total would be a good bet.

Expect Uruguay to have more than 50% possession – perhaps over 55%. Uruguay are also likely to get more corners – possibly 7 or more – and have more than 10 shots. Consider also Suarez to score the first goal – the price will not be that generous, but he often scores on the big occasion. Handicap betting will be worth considering but look for +2 before putting too much money on Egypt.

Interesting Facts and Information

  • Egypt haven’t won in their last 6 games.
  • Uruguay have a winning streak of 3 games.
  • Uruguay have kept a clean sheet in 3 games in a row.
  • Egypt wins 1st half in 11% of their matches, Uruguay in 33% of their games.
  • Egypt wins 11% of halftimes, Uruguay wins 33%.
  • Uruguay’s recent performance is better than Egypt’s.
  • In World Cup, Uruguay has better performance than Egypt.
  • The winner of their last meeting was Uruguay.
  • On their last meeting, Uruguay won by 2 goals.
  • Egypt scores 1 goals when playing at home and Uruguay scores 0.8 goals when playing away (in average).
  • Egypt has a streak of 2 games without scoring a goal.
  • When Egypt leads 1-0 at home, they win in 100% of their games.
  • When Uruguay leads 0-1 away, they win in 100% of their games.
  • When Uruguay is down 1-0 away, they win 0% of their games.

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